The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 27, 2025, ahead of the usual June 1 schedule. If accurate, this would be the earliest monsoon onset across the Indian mainland since 2009, when it arrived on May 23.
According to the IMD, favorable ocean-atmospheric conditions are contributing to this early arrival. The department has also predicted above-normal rainfall for the season, estimating it at 105% of the long-period average of 87 cm. This is a promising sign for India’s agricultural sector, particularly for Kharif crops such as rice, corn, soybean, cotton, and sugarcane. Timely rains could lead to early sowing and a potentially strong harvest, boosting rural incomes and food security.
However, experts caution that an early onset in Kerala does not guarantee a uniform monsoon across the country. The monsoon’s advance depends on multiple global and regional weather patterns. Despite this, the early forecast is expected to ease concerns about food supply and bolster India’s $4 trillion economy, which is closely tied to agricultural performance.
